Grand Transition project

Deals with the process of long-run development

Related to democracy project


Main papers

Joint project with Erich Gundlach, GIGA IAS and Hamburg University, Germany


(1) Two Views on Development and Institutions
The Grand Transition vs the Primacy of Institutions

Kyklos 61, 65-100, 2008. {Also under Corruption Project}


(2) Farewell critical junctures
Sorting out the long-run causality of income and democracy

European Journal of Political Economy 25, 340-54, 2009.
The empirical study uses the Polity data set


(3) The transition of corruption:
From poverty to honesty

Economic Letters. 103, 146-48, 2009 {Also under Corruption Project project}
Analyzing causality between income and corruption in the long run.


(4) The Democratic Transition
Short-run and long-run causality between income and the Gastil index

European Journal of Development Research 24 144-68, 2012
The empirical study uses the polity data set


The agricultural, demographic and democratic transitions
Two estimation models with the reverse results

Working paper Aarhus and Kiel. September 2010.
After many revisions and discussions the following three papers emerged:


(5) Jumps into democracy
Integrating short and the long run in the Democratic Transition

Kyklos 71(3), 456-81 July 2018

Appendix , December 2017
see also: Causality and kernel regressions
Illustrated by data for income and the polity index

December 2018


(6) A study of triggering events
When do political regimes change?

Public Choice online first, doi 10.1007/s11127-019-00678-4
16th of June 2019


(7) A hump-shaped transitional growth path as
a general pattern of long-run development

September 2019


(8) Does system instability harm development?
A comparative empirical study of the long run

For special issue of Public Choice July 2019


(9) The Transition of Corruption
Institutions and dynamics

October 2019


See also:

papers on the transition of corruption on the corruption page

papers on the religious transition on separate page


Spin off papers:

An essay on the Muslim Gap. Religiosity and the political system.
Chapter 10 pp 213-42 in R. Wintrobe and M. Ferrero, eds., 2009.
The Political Economy of Theocracy. Palgrave Macmillan


(10) The spirits of capitalism and socialism. A cross-country study of ideology.
Public Choice 150, 469-98 {Also listed under Democracy papers}
With Christian Bjørnskov, Department of Economics, Faculty of Business, Aarhus University


Background papers

On separate page